LAHORE:
Rapid urbanisation, shrinking green spaces and expanding concrete infrastructure have increased temperatures in Lahore over the past 25 years, according to an analysis by WWF-Pakistan based on satellite data, raising concerns about public health, energy demand and climate resilience.
The study, which examined nighttime land surface temperature data from a NASA satellite between 2001 and 2025, found that built-up areas in the city have warmed considerably faster than vegetated zones.
According to the findings, vegetated areas, including parks, agricultural land and green corridors, recorded a temperature increase of 2.16 degrees Celsius over the study period. In contrast, non-vegetated and built-up areas experienced a rise of 3.07 degrees, nearly 42 per cent faster than green spaces during the period.
The report noted that the temperature gap between green and built-up surfaces widened from 0.25°C in 2001 to 1.16°C last year, highlighting the growing impact of the urban heat island effect across the city.
The WWF-Pakistan said the phenomenon is particularly evident at night, when concrete and asphalt surfaces continue releasing heat accumulated during the day, preventing temperatures from dropping and reducing relief for residents.
The analysis identified May as Lahore’s most hazardous month due to extreme pre-monsoon heat. In the city’s most urbanised areas, temperatures have been increasing by approximately 0.2°C annually during May, amounting to nearly 5°C of additional nighttime heat over 25 years.
The study revealed that Lahore’s climate has undergone a marked shift since the early 2000s. While summer temperatures previously peaked around 4243°C, recent years have seen more frequent and intense heatwaves. The warming trend accelerated from an average increase of about 0.2°C per year during the first 15 years of the study period to nearly 0.3°C annually over the last decade.
The urban heat island effect has also intensified, with densely built-up parts of Lahore now recording temperatures eight to 10 degrees Celsius higher than surrounding rural areas during summer afternoons.
June has emerged as a particularly critical month. According to the report, maximum temperatures that generally ranged between 44°C and 45°C in the early 2000s have consistently exceeded 48°C in recent years. The city recorded an unprecedented temperature of 50.1°C in June 2022.
Nighttime temperatures have also risen sharply, with minimum temperatures increasing from 2829°C to 3435°C over the period. The number of days each June with temperatures reaching or exceeding 45°C has climbed from three to four annually in the early 2000s to more than 12 in recent years.
The report warned that prolonged periods of extreme heat, combined with warmer nights, pose serious health risks, particularly for outdoor workers, elderly people, children and low-income households without access to cooling systems.
It added that rising temperatures are increasing electricity demand for cooling, placing additional pressure on power infrastructure while contributing to heat generation in urban areas.
The WWF-Pakistan stressed that urban greening measures, including tree plantation, green roofs, public parks, roadside vegetation and the protection of peri-urban agricultural land, remain among the most cost-effective climate adaptation strategies available.
