Following recent energy crises, Russia has lowered its natural gas production and export forecasts, underscoring the long-term impact of Europe’s departure from Russian energy supplies.
Russia has officially downgraded its export forecasts, driven by long-term structural losses in European pipeline deliveries.
According to updated official economic projections, natural gas production is now expected to hit 683.1 billion cubic meters (bcm), marking a downward revision of several billion cubic meters from previous estimates.
As reported, revisions also target seaborne liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, which have been scaled back to 35 million tons.
Exports of seaborne liquefied natural gas from Russia are seen rising to 35 million tons this year from 30.3 million tons in 2025, but that is still 5.3 million tons lower than previously expected.
LNG exports are seen continuing to rise in coming years, but at a slower pace than previously forecast, the document showed.
Russia’s gas exports to Europe tumbled 44% last year to just 18 bcm, the lowest since the mid-1970s following the closure of the Ukrainian transit route, according to Reuters calculations.
While these revisions still reflect year-on-year growth compared to previous cycles, it represents a major reduction from earlier, more optimistic government targets.
Analysts note that these cuts mirror recent downward revisions to Russia’s oil output forecasts, pointing to broader constraints across the country’s hydrocarbon sectors.
Historically, Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe peaked at roughly 180 bcm annually.
However, that figure has plummeted drastically following geopolitical conflicts, infrastructure damage such as the Nord Stream explosions—and deliberate European policy choices to phase out imports.
While the Kremlin maintains that it remains technically ready to resume deliveries and argues that European economies are hurting themselves by paying higher spot-market prices, international buyers continue to permanently decouple.
Consequently, Moscow is forced to recalibrate its long-term industrial output and redirect remaining energy flows toward alternative markets in Asia.
As reported by Reuters, Europe prepares to wind up its final Russian gas purchases.
Russia had also downgraded its 2026 oil output forecast to a 17-year low and revised the fuel export outlook for this year and next due to the war with Ukraine.
The forecasts will be used to update the federal budget to 2029.
Natural gas production and export forecasts have been revised down against the background of ruptured economic and political ties with the West over the Ukraine war and the European Union’s plans to stop all purchases of Russian gas from next year.
According to the draft forecast, natural gas production in Russia this year will amount to 683.1 billion cubic metres, 5.3 bcm below that expected in a May projection, but still above the 662.7 bcm produced in 2025.
The Kremlin said this month that Europe was hurting itself by buying expensive gas on the spot market instead of opting for cheaper Russian supplies.
Moscow maintains it is ready to restart gas supplies to Europe, including via the Nord Stream undersea pipelines, one leg of which remains intact after the blasts in September 2022.
