Democrat Mary Peltola is likely to defeat Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s closely contested Senate election, although the final result has not yet been declared.
According to NBC News, its Decision Desk has at least 95 percent confidence that Peltola will win as vote counting continues.
The former Democratic congresswoman has gradually expanded her narrow lead over Sullivan with each new batch of ballots counted this week.
Alaska is the only remaining Senate race from the 2026 midterm elections that NBC News has not officially projected.
If Peltola wins, Democrats will increase their Senate majority to 56 seats, leaving Republicans with 44.
The outcome remains uncertain as election officials continue processing outstanding postal and overseas ballots.
Under Alaska’s election rules, ballots posted by Election Day can be counted if they arrive by November 13, with additional time allowed for eligible overseas voters.
The state also uses ranked-choice voting, meaning the final result could depend on voters’ second preferences.
If no candidate secures more than half the first-choice votes, the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated and their votes are redistributed.
The process continues until one candidate wins a majority.
Peltola remains the favourite, but an official winner has yet to be announced.
