Three polls published within days put Spain’s PP and Vox at roughly 190 to 200 of the 350 seats in the lower house. A majority takes 176.
For El Español, SocioMetrica predicts 200 seats for the PP and Vox combined and 108 seats for the Socialists, two more than previously. Based on their 5,460 online interviews with a margin of error of 3 points, there was a shift of 832,000 votes from the left to the right.
According to 40dB (for El País), the lead of the PP over the Socialists has decreased by 2 points. The Socialists have gained 1.8 points to 29.9%, and the bloc on the right would still get some 190 seats.
Sigma Dos, which published the results in El Mundo, assigns 105 seats to the Socialists and 199 seats to the PP and Vox combined. In turn, IMOP (for El Confidencial) focused on vote transfers. Thus, the loyalty of the Socialist electorate is declining, while the popularity of the PP is growing – at the expense of Vox.
The polls demonstrate that the PP will finish first but will not manage to gain a parliamentary majority alone. Therefore, Vox is likely to become the party’s ally. These parties rule in four autonomous communities of Spain.
Spain’s hard-left parties couldn’t agree last month on a common list of candidates. That reduces Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s chances of staying in power at the head of a leftist coalition. The polls show the Broad Front winning 10 to 15 seats, while Podemos risks losing its parliamentary representation.
Expect housing, immigration and corruption to dominate. The October 28 train crash near Urda killed 69 people. Transport Minister Óscar Puente resigned over it on November 3.
Not every pollster agrees on who leads. The state-run CIS had the Socialists ahead, 34.0% to 22.2%, while private polls put the PP at around 31%. Polls are snapshots, not forecasts, and the gap between the two main parties has already moved.
