AS missiles, drones and bombs were hitting targets on all sides of the Persian Gulf, news broke of a mediation effort led by Pakistan, Turkiye and Egypt that generated a faint hope that at some stage it would result in the cessation of hostilities triggered by the brazen US-Israel attack on Iran and the latter’s retaliatory action.
However, Israel may have extinguished that hope when, in a major escalatory move, it attacked a number of steel and power plants and a nuclear facility in Iran late on Friday. These attacks came despite US President Donald Trump’s declaration that he was extending his earlier five-day deadline to another 10 and refraining from attacking such sites to give negotiations a chance. I doubt Israel would have acted alone.
Iran, which was unequivocal in threatening ‘unprecedented’ retaliation if such sites were hit, responded by issuing a list of similar targets in Israel and in Gulf States which host US bases and troops. Western security sources were expecting significant Iranian retaliation. Do the US and Israel have enough in their armouries to blunt such an assault?
Slowly but surely reports have been appearing in the usually circumspect American media that the missile interceptors of the US, Israel and their allies are running out and also that America’s inventory of Tomahawk cruise missiles is running low as they have so far launched some 800-plus of these weapons on Iran.
Not one of the stated war objectives of the US-Israel combine has been met, particularly not ‘regime change’. Iran is still raining missiles and the Hezbollah and Houthis have also joined the war.
Experts are pointing out that US companies have been asked to ramp up production of all kinds of offensive and defensive missiles but there are two impediments. The first is that they can’t be mass-produced at the drop of a hat; it will be several months, even up to a year, before they start to beef up inventories. And secondly, China owns or controls up to 98 per cent of some of the rare earth materials that are reportedly needed in the guidance and targeting systems of these missiles. It isn’t exporting them currently.
As these lines were being written, one report has suggested that in the latest Iranian missile/drone attack on a US base in Saudi Arabia, one or more E-3 AWACS planes were hit along with some aerial refuelling tankers. The significance of the damage to E-3s is that they were sent to the Middle East after Iran struck various US radars severely limiting the ability to keep an eye on incoming missiles and other projectiles.
The US media has also reported that Iran is able to make operational some of its tunnels within 48 hours of Israel-US bombing to seal off their openings. It uses these to launch missiles and access its stockpiles buried deep underground, often in rocky terrain. Iran may be in severe pain but it has clearly not lost its ability to inflict pain right back.
Meanwhile, not one of the stated war objectives of the US-Israel combine has been met, particularly not ‘regime change.’ Iran is still launching missiles, and its so-called proxies Hezbollah in Lebanon have also joined the fight and the Houthis of Yemen, too, are jumping in.
The despatch of about 10,000 US Marines and servicemen/women has been taken as an indication of some sort of attempt by the US to capture one or more Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf. But military experts argue that any such attempt seems mindless in the face of what they assess are the losses the US will have to take. Perhaps, their ground mission is elsewhere.
It seems Israel’s provocative targeting of key sites in Iran and the latter’s retaliation, some of which has already come and some is feared, may not have derailed the negotiation process. The Pakistan foreign minister is hosting his Turkish, Egyptian and Saudi Arabian counterparts soon. The presence of US and Iranian interlocutors can’t be ruled out, even as it appears unlikely.
The biggest obstacle to any move forward in any peace talks will be Iran’s experience of being attacked while in the midst of negotiations last year and earlier this year. Of course, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, barring a few carriers Iran has flagged through, will push up energy prices to a level where the damage to the global economy and the markets will be unsustainable.
Trump is a master at double-speak. So, nothing he says can be taken at face value, as Israel demonstrated by violating his 10-day moratorium on striking power plants and other infrastructure.
Rising energy prices and the possibility of further huge damage to the Gulf energy infrastructure may force him to put a leash on Benjamin Netanyahu, the genocidal psychopath at the helm of the apartheid state, who is trampling international law and possibly even reshaping the regional security architecture to the detriment of the US itself.
Much will depend on whether the psycho can be put on a leash or will continue to wag the dog. Equally, peace moves will hinge on who gains the upper hand in the Washington, D.C. split where the vice president and the CIA director are said to favour an end to the war and the secretaries of war and state believed to be firmly in Bibi’s lap.
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
Published in Dawn, March 29th, 2026
