War Diary Day 27: Multifront escalation in US-Israeli war on Iran appears imminent

On 27th day of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the conflict has continued to be fully kinetic with no sign of de-escalation, even as US President Donald Trump’s five-day pause expires on Friday. Meanwhile, the overall trajectory of the conflict points towards an imminent widening of hostilities across multiple theatres.

Over the past 24 hours, direct strikes inside Iran intensified. Multiple explosions were reported across central, southern and eastern Tehran, with air defence systems activated across the capital, while additional strikes hit Khorramabad, triggering blackouts and being followed by rescue operations. Reports also indicated damage in areas where residences and infrastructure are located in Mashhad.

Iran’s response, both directly and through its regional network of allies, showed a marked escalation in tempo and scale. Missile and drone strikes continued against Israeli targets, with reports suggesting improved penetration rates against air defences and expanded targeting of defence, industrial and processing facilities, including a strike on the ICL Rotem complex in the Negev. Claims of strikes at multiple locations, including areas near Dimona and Haifa, alongside attacks on US positions in Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, reinforced the pattern of distributed retaliation.

The Lebanese front

The most significant escalation, however, was visible on the Lebanese front, where Hezbollah sharply increased both the intensity and effectiveness of its operations. A series of coordinated ambushes across multiple axes in southern Lebanon, including Taybeh, Markaba and Khiam, resulted in heavy Israeli armour losses, with field reports describing the destruction of a large number of Merkava tanks and supporting vehicles within a short span. This was accompanied by some of the heaviest rocket barrages reported so far, targeting not only northern Israel but extending to Tel Aviv and other strategic locations.

This combination of ground attrition and long range strikes suggests that Hezbollah is seeking to shape the battlespace ahead of any potential escalation linked to the expiry of the US pause, while reinforcing deterrence through visible battlefield successes. The messaging accompanying these operations, particularly the emphasis on reciprocal population displacement, points to an increasingly hardened posture.

Alongside Lebanon, the maritime dimension is also showing signs of activation. The Houthis have signalled readiness to resume attacks on shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising the prospect of a second critical chokepoint coming under pressure at a time when the Strait of Hormuz remains contested. The simultaneous choking of the two waterways, when it happens, will be part of a broader Iranian strategy of horizontal escalation.

The diplomatic front

Diplomatically, the picture remains constrained despite continued backchannel activity. Iran has formally responded to and rejected the US proposal conveyed through intermediaries, reiterating its core conditions which include an immediate end to attacks, guarantees against future aggression, compensation for damages, simultaneous cessation of hostilities across all fronts, and recognition of its position on the Strait of Hormuz. These demands underline the structural gap between Tehran and Washington, which continues to demand far reaching restrictions on nuclear and missile related matters.

Iranian officials have maintained that negotiations cannot take place under active military pressure, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly rejecting the idea of talks while strikes continue. Iranian state narratives have portrayed US references to diplomacy as attempts to manage perceptions and stabilise markets rather than signal genuine intent.

At the same time, internal developments within Iran point to further consolidation of a security driven approach, with figures such as Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr assuming greater influence and hardline voices gaining ground. This shift is narrowing the space for compromise and reinforcing a strategy centred on endurance and calibrated escalation.

Next phase in the offing?

On the US and Israeli side, indications of preparation for a possible next phase are becoming more visible. Political signalling in Washington has included open references to potential ground operations, while military assessments continue to focus on options such as the seizure of key islands, including Kharg, Larak, Qeshm and Kish, to alter the balance in the Strait of Hormuz.

The overall assessment at the end of day 27 is that the diplomatic window created by the US pause is closing without producing convergence, while the military dynamics across Iran, Lebanon and the maritime domain are moving in the opposite direction.

With the pause expiring, both sides appear to be positioning for a more decisive phase, raising the risk that the conflict could transition from its current attritional pattern to a broader and more intense confrontation in the coming days.

Header image: People wave national flags and hold portraits of Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei as they march in support of the Iranian armed forces in central Tehran on March 25, 2026. — AFP