Warns intensified heatwaves, water shortages, and agricultural challenges likely during three-month period
LAHORE:
Below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures have been forecasted across most parts of the country during June and the upcoming three-month period, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
According to the Met Department, the El Nino phase has reemerged in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to persist in the coming months while the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral. These climatic conditions may result in the uneven spatial distribution of rainfall across Pakistan.
As per the outlook reports and the Director of Meteorology Lahore Aleemul Hassan, intensified heatwaves, water shortages, and increased challenges for agriculture may arise during the three-month period.
The country received an average of 22.4 millimetres of rainfall in May 2026, around 10% below normal levels. Meanwhile, the mean temperature for the month stood at 29.2 degrees Celsius, which was 0.8 degrees above the long-term average.
In Punjab, 29.7 millimetres of rainfall was recorded during May, which was 19% above normal, while Sindh recorded only 0.3 millimetres, marking a deficit of 91%. Balochistan remained 71% below normal while Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B) recorded 33% above-normal precipitation.
In its monthly outlook for June 2026, the PMD said that rainfall was likely to remain near-normal to slightly below-normal across most parts of the country. The largest deficits in rainfall were expected in Northeastern Punjab, Kashmir, and adjoining areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P).
In contrast, G-B and upper K-P were likely to receive slightly above-normal rainfall during June, as per the monthly outlook.
Read: Lahore weather turns pleasant after rain, hailstorms in several areas
Temperatures, meanwhile, were expected to remain above-normal nationwide during the month of June, with the warming trend likely to be more pronounced in G-B, Kashmir, and Northern K-P. Heatwave conditions may also intensify over the plains of Southern Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan.
According to the PMD’s seasonal assessment, Pakistan received 148 millimetres of rainfall during March-May 2026, which was 26% above-normal. The average temperature, meanwhile, remained 1 degree Celsius above the long-term average.
During this period, Punjab recorded 31% above-normal rainfall, while the same in Sindh was 106% higher than normal.
During the June to August period, however, weather patterns were expected to change. As per the Met Department, below-normal rainfall was likely to persist in most parts of Punjab, Sindh, lower K-P, and Balochistan.
Northern areas, on the other hand, particularly G-B, Northern K-P, and Kashmir, may receive normal to above-normal rainfall. Northeastern Punjab was expected to experience the largest rainfall deficit during the period.
Read More: Warming El Nino set to return in mid-2026: UN
Regarding the impact that the expected weather may have on the agriculture sector, the PMD warned that reduced rainfall may adversely affect the sowing of Kharif crop as well as early crop development. Irrigation requirements may increase, however.
At the same time, higher rainfall in the northern regions, coupled with accelerated snowmelt, may raise the risk of glacial outburst floods (GLOFs), flash floods, and landslides.
The outlook report for the three-month period also noted that prolonged heat, intermittent rainfall, and increased humidity levels may also elevate the risk of vector-borne diseases, including dengue. Sharp temperature gradients may also trigger dust storms, strong winds, and hailstorms, potentially damaging crops, orchards, and infrastructure.
The Met Department advised farmers to consult weather advisories before making decisions regarding irrigation and harvesting. It also urged the public to exercise caution during periods of extreme heat, rainfall events, and travel to mountainous regions.
